Clutch Goals, Soft Points, and the Overrated Superstar...
In today’s NHL, not all goals and assists are created equal.
There are big goals and not-so-big goals.
The value of an overtime shorthanded away goal against a strong divisional rival is undoubtedly greater than the value of an empty net goal against a weak non-conference team, scored on a two-man advantage.
For years, there has been a belief that certain NHL players elevate their games to score important goals in crucial situations in big games.
“Clutch” players.
Meanwhile, other players pad their stats with garbage points in meaningless contests.
“Soft” players.
Until now, this belief has been unsubstantiated.
We have created The Clutch Factor, a method by which the value of goals and assists may be objectively calculated and standardized.
By assessing the “Clutch Elements” which are at play on every goal, ranging from goal differential to manpower situation to opposition strength, and by analyzing every goal scored in the NHL 2007-08 season through the recent All-Star break, we have figured out who is, in fact, scoring clutch goals. And who is padding their stats with soft points.
Clutch Elements
Goal Elements
- Goal Differential at the time the goal is scored
- Manpower
- Period of game
- Empty Net
- Overtime
Game Elements:
- Home versus Away
- Divisional, conference, or inter-conference opponent
- Strength of opposing team
- Defense of opposing team
- Time of season
Terminology
Goals (G)
Assists (A)
Points (P)
Clutch Factor (CF):
This is the calculated factor which takes into account the Clutch Elements.
Some goals are more clutch, and they will have a value of greater than one.
Some goals are less clutch, and they have a value of less than one.
(If you look at all of the goals scored in the league, they average out to be 1.)
If a player consistently scores Clutch Goals (or assists), their overall Clutch Factor will end up greater than one.
Conversely, if a player scores soft goals (or assists), their overall Clutch Factor will be less than one.
However, looking at just the Clutch Factor is only part of the story. Ideally, we should also factor in how many goals the player scores.
That is, the Clutch Factor tells you the quality of the goals, and the total goals tells you the quantity.
Therefore, if you multiply the quantity (total goals) by the quality (Clutch Factor), you end up with an adjusted goal (and assist and point) value, we call Clutch Goals (and Clutch Assists and Clutch Points) which takes both elements into account.
This gives us a good indication of the overall value of a player, taking into account the number of goals he scores as well as their quality.
Clutch Goals (CG): G X CF = CG.
Clutch Assists (CA): A X CF = CA
Clutch Points (CP): P X CF = CP
Results
We found a number of interesting, and sometimes counter-intuitive, results.
For example...
Question: Of all the Hart Trophy Candidates, who is scoring Clutch points?
P CF CP
Alfredsson 67 .79 52
Lecavalier 66 .93 60
Ovechkin 65 1.06 67
Kovalchuk 63 .98 60
Iginla 63 1.09 67
Crosby 63 .98 62
Zetterberg 61 .86 52
Thornton 60 1.07 66
St. Louis 59 .80 47
Getzlaf 58 1.05 62
If the players were to be ranked by their Clutch Factor, the top ten order would look quite different...
- Iginla 1.09
- Thornton 1.07
- Ovechkin 1.06
- Getzlaf 1.05
- Kovalchuk .98
- Crosby .98
- Lecavalier .93
- Zetterberg .86
- St. Louis .80
- Alfredsson .79
Similarly, if the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Points (CP)...
- Ovechkin 67
- Iginla 67
- Thornton 66
- Crosby 62
- Getzlaf 62
- Kovalchuk 60
- Lecavalier 60
- Alfredsson 52
- Zetterberg 52
- St. Louis 47
Conclusions:
- Ovechkin, Iginla, and Thornton are scoring Clutch Points and should be considered for the Hart.
- Alfredsson, Zetterberg, and St. Louis are scoring Soft Points.
Question: Among the Rocket Richard Trophy Candidates, who is scoring Clutch Goals?
G CF CG
- Ovechkin 39 .95 37
- Kovalchuk 37 .96 36
- Alfredsson 32 .61 20
- Iginla 32 1.06 34
- Lecavalier 30 .93 28
- Boyes 29 1.09 31
- Zetterberg 28 .88 24
- Malkin 27 .76 21
- Nash 26 .90 23
- Perry 26 .93 23
- Gaborik 25 .95 24
- E. Staal 25 .54 14
If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Factor (CF)...
- Boyes 1.09
- Iginla 1.06
- Kovalchuk .96
- Ovechkin .95
- Gaborik .95
- Lecavalier .93
- Perry .93
- Nash .90
- Zetterberg .88
- Malkin .76
- Alfredsson .61
- E. Staal .54
Or multiplied by their total goals, gives us their Clutch Goal ranking...
- Ovechkin 37
- Kovalchuk 36
- Iginla 34
- Boyes 31
- Lecavalier 28
- Zetterberg 24
- Gaborik 24
- Nash 23
- Perry 23
- Malkin 21
- Alfredsson 20
- Staal 14
Conclusions:
- Of the Rocket Richard candidates, only Boyes and Iginla have a Clutch Factor above the league-wide average.
- Alfredsson and Staal are among the lowest in the league in terms of their Clutch Factor.
- Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, and Iginla have the highest Clutch Goals among the top scorers.
Question: Who is scoring Clutch Assists?
A CF CA
- Thornton 45 1.06 48
- Savard 44 .94 41
- Crosby 43 1.01 43
- H. Sedin 42 1.03 43
- Datsyuk 41 .85 35
- Lidstrom 41 .74 30
- St. Louis 40 .81 32
- Getzlaf 39 .97 38
- Spezza 39 .81 32
- Lecavalier 36 .89 32
- Alfredsson 35 .92 32
Conclusions:
- Thornton, Sedin, and Crosby are scoring Clutch Assists
- Lidstrom, Spezza, St. Louis, and Datsyuk rank well below in terms of Clutch Assists.
Question: Which Norris Trophy Candidate are scoring Clutch Points?
Total Points Ranking
- Lidstrom 46
- Rafalski 43
- Gonchar 40
- Pronger 36
- Zubov 35
- Chara 34
- Markov 34
- Campbell 33
- Jovanovski 33
- Phaneuf 32
- Kaberle 31
If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Factor (CF - Points)...
- Jovanovski 1.03
- Pronger 1.01
- Phaneuf .90
- Chara .88
- Kaberle .88
- Rafalski .81
- Zubov .78
- Gonchar .76
- Markov .76
- Lidstrom .76
- Campbell .71
If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Points
- Pronger 37
- Lidstrom 37
- Rafalski 36
- Jovanovski 35
- Gonchar 31
- Chara 31
- Phaneuf 30
- Zubov 29
- Kaberle 28
- Markov 26
- Campbell 25
Conclusions:
- Jovanovski and Pronger have the highest Clutch Factors among offensive defensemen.
- Campbell, Gonchar, Lidstrom, and Markov have among the lowest Clutch Factors.
Question: Which projected 30 goal scorers are among the league's best in terms of Clutch Factor (Goals)?
G CF CG
Getzlaf 19 1.23 23
Kopitar 19 1.21 23
Hagman 18 1.29 22
Zherdev 20 1.12 23
Svatos 20 1.28 26
Horcoff 21 1.13 24
Conclusion
These players may be undervalued based on conventional statistics.
Question: Which projected 30 goal scorers are among the league's worst in terms of Clutch Factor (Goals)?
G CF CG
E. Staal 27 .54 14
Alfredsson 32 .61 20
Brown 20 .59 14
D. Roy 18 .60 11
Langkow 20 .70 14
Prospal 19 .70 13
Whitney 21 .74 15
Antropov 18 .74 13
Malkin 27 .76 21
Conclusion
These players may be overrated, based on conventional statistics.
Which Upcoming Unrestricted Free Agents are Clutch Scorers?
Clutch Factor (Points)
M. Hossa .92
Campbell .71
Conroy 1.08
Huselius .90
Brunette .97
Fedorov 1.10
Cleary .95
Nagy .50
Demitra 1.04
Satan 1.26
Comrie .88
Redden .77
M. Naslund 1.04
Stillman .84
Conclusions:
- Satan, Fedorov, and Conroy may pay dividends.
- Nagy may not.
Other interesting numbers...
Above average:
Sundin CF (Points) = 1.01
Dumont CF (Points) = 1.03
M. Michalek CF (Points) = 1.14
Doan CF (Goals) = 1.18
Cammalleri CF (Goals) = 1.06
Penner CF (Points = 1.08
Modano CF (Goals) = 1.45
Hemsky CF (Goals) = 1.12
Kariya CF (Goals) = 1.18
Tanguay CF (Goals) = 1.38
S. Koivu CF (Goals) = 1.07
Satan CF (Goals) = 1.37
Toews CF (Goals) = 1.10
Below average:
Stillman CF (Points) = .84
Briere CF (Points) = .85
Kovalev CF (Points) = .76
Heatley CF (Points) = .86
Jagr CF (Points) = .80
B. Richards CF (Points) = .76
Kessel CF (Goals) = .56
Kotalik CF (Goals) = .68
O. Jokinen CF (Goals) = .83
Guerin CF (Goals) = .85
Drury CF (Points) = .78
Kane CF (Goals) = .77
These are just some of the results obtained so far.
We believe this is a useful objective tool, whereby the value of a goal or assist, and the players who score them, may be measured more accurately.
This may be helpful in player scouting, contract negotiations, arbitration, signings, and player recognition.
