Methodology

2008-02-10T17:16:00.000-07:00

Seems like there is a lot of interest/skepticism regarding the methodology/derivation of "The Clutch Factor.

Here are some details:

Each goal starts out with a value of 1.00.

From this, value is added or subtracted according to the following protocol...

Goal Differential:

0 .2

1 .2

2 0

3 -.2

4 -.4

5 -.6

Period

1st 0

2nd 0

3rd .1

OT .3

Manpower

PP -.1

2 Man PP -.2

ES .1

SH .2

PS 0

Location

Home 0

Away .1

Opponent

Divisional .2

Conference 0

Other conf -.1

Opponent's win-loss record

Playoff team 0

Non-playoff team -.15

Opponent's defensive record

Stratified based on GAA: range .1 to -.1

Time of season

Early season 0

Late season 0.1

Special situations

EN Worth 0.5

Assists

First assist = value of associated goal

Second assist = value of first assist -.2

Each goal ends up with a calculated value.

The distribution is then statistically modified to zero the league average at 1.0, and to place the Clutch Factor into a meaningful and relevant range.

Undoubtedly the factors which we have selected are debatable. I look forward to comments about inclusions, exclusions, relative weighting.

Thanks.

NHL 08: Introducing... The Clutch Factor

2008-02-04T00:19:00.002-07:00

Clutch Goals, Soft Points, and the Overrated Superstar...

In today’s NHL, not all goals and assists are created equal.

There are big goals and not-so-big goals.

The value of an overtime shorthanded away goal against a strong divisional rival is undoubtedly greater than the value of an empty net goal against a weak non-conference team, scored on a two-man advantage.

For years, there has been a belief that certain NHL players elevate their games to score important goals in crucial situations in big games.

“Clutch” players.

Meanwhile, other players pad their stats with garbage points in meaningless contests.

“Soft” players.

Until now, this belief has been unsubstantiated.

We have created The Clutch Factor, a method by which the value of goals and assists may be objectively calculated and standardized.

By assessing the “Clutch Elements” which are at play on every goal, ranging from goal differential to manpower situation to opposition strength, and by analyzing every goal scored in the NHL 2007-08 season through the recent All-Star break, we have figured out who is, in fact, scoring clutch goals. And who is padding their stats with soft points.

Clutch Elements

Goal Elements

Goal Differential at the time the goal is scored
Manpower
Period of game
Empty Net
Overtime

Game Elements:

Home versus Away
Divisional, conference, or inter-conference opponent
Strength of opposing team
Defense of opposing team
Time of season

Terminology

Goals (G)

Assists (A)

Points (P)

Clutch Factor (CF):

This is the calculated factor which takes into account the Clutch Elements.

Some goals are more clutch, and they will have a value of greater than one.

Some goals are less clutch, and they have a value of less than one.

(If you look at all of the goals scored in the league, they average out to be 1.)

If a player consistently scores Clutch Goals (or assists), their overall Clutch Factor will end up greater than one.

Conversely, if a player scores soft goals (or assists), their overall Clutch Factor will be less than one.

However, looking at just the Clutch Factor is only part of the story. Ideally, we should also factor in how many goals the player scores.

That is, the Clutch Factor tells you the quality of the goals, and the total goals tells you the quantity.

Therefore, if you multiply the quantity (total goals) by the quality (Clutch Factor), you end up with an adjusted goal (and assist and point) value, we call Clutch Goals (and Clutch Assists and Clutch Points) which takes both elements into account.

This gives us a good indication of the overall value of a player, taking into account the number of goals he scores as well as their quality.

Clutch Goals (CG): G X CF = CG.

Clutch Assists (CA): A X CF = CA

Clutch Points (CP): P X CF = CP

Results

We found a number of interesting, and sometimes counter-intuitive, results.

For example...

Question: Of all the Hart Trophy Candidates, who is scoring Clutch points?

P CF CP

Alfredsson 67 .79 52

Lecavalier 66 .93 60

Ovechkin 65 1.06 67

Kovalchuk 63 .98 60

Iginla 63 1.09 67

Crosby 63 .98 62

Zetterberg 61 .86 52

Thornton 60 1.07 66

St. Louis 59 .80 47

Getzlaf 58 1.05 62

If the players were to be ranked by their Clutch Factor, the top ten order would look quite different...

Iginla 1.09
Thornton 1.07
Ovechkin 1.06
Getzlaf 1.05
Kovalchuk .98
Crosby .98
Lecavalier .93
Zetterberg .86
St. Louis .80
Alfredsson .79

Similarly, if the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Points (CP)...

Ovechkin 67
Iginla 67
Thornton 66
Crosby 62
Getzlaf 62
Kovalchuk 60
Lecavalier 60
Alfredsson 52
Zetterberg 52
St. Louis 47

Conclusions:

Ovechkin, Iginla, and Thornton are scoring Clutch Points and should be considered for the Hart.
Alfredsson, Zetterberg, and St. Louis are scoring Soft Points.

Question: Among the Rocket Richard Trophy Candidates, who is scoring Clutch Goals?

G CF CG

Ovechkin 39 .95 37
Kovalchuk 37 .96 36
Alfredsson 32 .61 20
Iginla 32 1.06 34
Lecavalier 30 .93 28
Boyes 29 1.09 31
Zetterberg 28 .88 24
Malkin 27 .76 21
Nash 26 .90 23
Perry 26 .93 23
Gaborik 25 .95 24
E. Staal 25 .54 14

If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Factor (CF)...

Boyes 1.09
Iginla 1.06
Kovalchuk .96
Ovechkin .95
Gaborik .95
Lecavalier .93
Perry .93
Nash .90
Zetterberg .88
Malkin .76
Alfredsson .61
E. Staal .54

Or multiplied by their total goals, gives us their Clutch Goal ranking...

Ovechkin 37
Kovalchuk 36
Iginla 34
Boyes 31
Lecavalier 28
Zetterberg 24
Gaborik 24
Nash 23
Perry 23
Malkin 21
Alfredsson 20
Staal 14

Conclusions:

Of the Rocket Richard candidates, only Boyes and Iginla have a Clutch Factor above the league-wide average.
Alfredsson and Staal are among the lowest in the league in terms of their Clutch Factor.
Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, and Iginla have the highest Clutch Goals among the top scorers.

Question: Who is scoring Clutch Assists?

A CF CA

Thornton 45 1.06 48
Savard 44 .94 41
Crosby 43 1.01 43
H. Sedin 42 1.03 43
Datsyuk 41 .85 35
Lidstrom 41 .74 30
St. Louis 40 .81 32
Getzlaf 39 .97 38
Spezza 39 .81 32
Lecavalier 36 .89 32
Alfredsson 35 .92 32

Conclusions:

Thornton, Sedin, and Crosby are scoring Clutch Assists
Lidstrom, Spezza, St. Louis, and Datsyuk rank well below in terms of Clutch Assists.

Question: Which Norris Trophy Candidate are scoring Clutch Points?

Total Points Ranking

Lidstrom 46
Rafalski 43
Gonchar 40
Pronger 36
Zubov 35
Chara 34
Markov 34
Campbell 33
Jovanovski 33
Phaneuf 32
Kaberle 31

If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Factor (CF - Points)...

Jovanovski 1.03
Pronger 1.01
Phaneuf .90
Chara .88
Kaberle .88
Rafalski .81
Zubov .78
Gonchar .76
Markov .76
Lidstrom .76
Campbell .71

If the players were to be ranked in terms of their Clutch Points

Pronger 37
Lidstrom 37
Rafalski 36
Jovanovski 35
Gonchar 31
Chara 31
Phaneuf 30
Zubov 29
Kaberle 28
Markov 26
Campbell 25

Conclusions:

Jovanovski and Pronger have the highest Clutch Factors among offensive defensemen.
Campbell, Gonchar, Lidstrom, and Markov have among the lowest Clutch Factors.

Question: Which projected 30 goal scorers are among the league's best in terms of Clutch Factor (Goals)?

G CF CG

Getzlaf 19 1.23 23

Kopitar 19 1.21 23

Hagman 18 1.29 22

Zherdev 20 1.12 23

Svatos 20 1.28 26

Horcoff 21 1.13 24

Conclusion

These players may be undervalued based on conventional statistics.

Question: Which projected 30 goal scorers are among the league's worst in terms of Clutch Factor (Goals)?

G CF CG

E. Staal 27 .54 14

Alfredsson 32 .61 20

Brown 20 .59 14

D. Roy 18 .60 11

Langkow 20 .70 14

Prospal 19 .70 13

Whitney 21 .74 15

Antropov 18 .74 13

Malkin 27 .76 21

Conclusion

These players may be overrated, based on conventional statistics.

Which Upcoming Unrestricted Free Agents are Clutch Scorers?

Clutch Factor (Points)

M. Hossa .92

Campbell .71

Conroy 1.08

Huselius .90

Brunette .97

Fedorov 1.10

Cleary .95

Nagy .50

Demitra 1.04

Satan 1.26

Comrie .88

Redden .77

M. Naslund 1.04

Stillman .84

Conclusions:

Satan, Fedorov, and Conroy may pay dividends.
Nagy may not.

Other interesting numbers...

Above average:

Sundin CF (Points) = 1.01

Dumont CF (Points) = 1.03

M. Michalek CF (Points) = 1.14

Doan CF (Goals) = 1.18

Cammalleri CF (Goals) = 1.06

Penner CF (Points = 1.08

Modano CF (Goals) = 1.45

Hemsky CF (Goals) = 1.12

Kariya CF (Goals) = 1.18

Tanguay CF (Goals) = 1.38

S. Koivu CF (Goals) = 1.07

Satan CF (Goals) = 1.37

Toews CF (Goals) = 1.10

Below average:

Stillman CF (Points) = .84

Briere CF (Points) = .85

Kovalev CF (Points) = .76

Heatley CF (Points) = .86

Jagr CF (Points) = .80

B. Richards CF (Points) = .76

Kessel CF (Goals) = .56

Kotalik CF (Goals) = .68

O. Jokinen CF (Goals) = .83

Guerin CF (Goals) = .85

Drury CF (Points) = .78

Kane CF (Goals) = .77

These are just some of the results obtained so far.

We believe this is a useful objective tool, whereby the value of a goal or assist, and the players who score them, may be measured more accurately.

This may be helpful in player scouting, contract negotiations, arbitration, signings, and player recognition.

NHL 08: The Clutch Factor

Methodology

NHL 08: Introducing... The Clutch Factor